Foreign 1. Societe Generale: The exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar may take some time to recover. 2. DBS Bank: Commodity volatility may continue, but opportunities still exist. 3. Bank of America Securities: The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will continue to benefit from the IPO of large Chinese companies next year. Domestic 1. Everbright Strategy: The "spring agitation" market of class A shares may gradually start. 2. Tianfeng Securities: Trump's policies may further push up inflation....
Societe Generale Bank pointed out in its 2025 foreign exchange outlook that the US dollar is still the best performer, but there is not much room for growth. Instead, the euro and the pound may have priced in most of the pessimism, and the quarterly target prices of these two currencies are looking towards... > >
Societe Generale Bank pointed out that gold is gradually returning to this traditional relationship, and short-term weakness in this range presents buying opportunities for bargains, while the long-term outlook remains generally optimistic. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against this major downside risk.
Socie ́ te ́ Ge ́ ne ́ rale forecasts that the 10-year Treasury yield will rise to 4.5% by the end of 2025, while the 2-year Treasury yield will fall to 3.5%. The reason is that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, which will lower short-term interest rates, but will also increase the demand for long-term Treasury bonds by stimulating the economy and increasing the fiscal deficit, which will lead to higher long-term yields. In addition, the possibility that Trump's tariff...
Socie ́ te ́ Ge ́ ne ́ rale said the US labour market report, which exceeded market consensus, firmly pushed the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in November rather than 50 basis points. Next week's CPI report may not change this view, as the fall in headline inflation should be driven entirely by fuel prices, while core inflation is expected to remain stubbornly high.
In a report, Socie ́ te ́ Ge ́ ne ́ rale said upcoming U.S. economic data could confirm that the labor market is steadily cooling and provide support for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and the dollar to weaken. "If the trend is a gradual easing of the labor market, then that would point to a rate cut, but not at the rate currently expected," said FX strategists at Socie ́ te ́ Ge ́ ne ́ rale. That could inject some volatility into the FX market, they said, though the bank stil...
Kit Juckes, chief global FX strategist at Socie ́ te ́ Ge ́ ne ́ rale, said in a note that the money market's current expectations for a US rate cut in 2024 appear to be overdone, and the possibility of a larger 50 basis point cut in September remains unlikely. The US money market now expects a 103 basis point cut in 2024, according to Refinitiv, suggesting the Federal Reserve will cut rates by at least 50 basis points in at least one of the three remaining meetings this year. Juckes said: "...
Societe Generale-Forge, a subsidiary of Societe Generale, has announced that it has been eligible for stablecoin issuance, and its EURCV stablecoin has been compliant with MiCA regulations that came into effect on June 30. SG Forge was registered as a Digital Asset Service Provider (DASP) back in September 2022, which gives them a legal status in terms of digital asset custody, buying and selling of fiat currencies and digital assets, and exchange services between digital assets. In addition, SG...